The Rhodium Climate Outlook provides probabilistic projections of the likely evolution of greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature rise through the end of the century, and insights into what will matter most for decarbonization in the coming decades.
Shortly before the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that without additional efforts to reduce emissions, global temperatures would increase between 2.5 and 7.8°C (very likely range, i.e. 90% confidence interval) by the end of the century. Policy and technological progress over the past nine years has significantly reduced the global temperature outlook.
If current trends in policy and technology development continue, we now project very likely temperature increases of 2.0-3.7°C by century’s end, with a 2.2-3.2°C likely (i.e. 67% confidence interval) range, and 2.7°C on average, absent a meaningful acceleration of policy or technology innovation. However, if current trends in policy and technology development continue, we find there is a less than 7% chance of keeping global temperature increases below 2°C, a Paris Agreement goal.
While emissions from the power and transport sectors fall, the industrial sector—including steel, cement, chemicals, and refining—faces stronger headwinds on its path to decarbonization. By 2050, industry consumes more fossil fuel than power generation, and emits more greenhouse gases than power, transport, and buildings combined. The good news is we see emissions fall in the coming decades in some of the highest-emitting sectors—including cement and iron and steel production—largely driven by growing adoption of low-emission technologies. But complete decarbonization of industrial production still requires a considerable acceleration in policy and innovation, and decarbonization of all other industrial sectors requires both technology innovation and deployment policy.
The outlook changes considerably in a world in which countries accelerate their ambition in 2035 and beyond to stay on a path to reach their existing mid-century emissions targets. To date, 149 countries representing 88% of global emissions have set net-zero or carbon neutrality targets in law or other policy documents, or announced by the head of state, including China, the US, the EU, and India. Under this Current Mid-Century Commitments Scenario, we find that the world is very likely on track to see an increase in global mean surface temperature of 1.3-2.5°C and is likely on track for1.5-2.2°C by century’s end, with 1.8°C on average. If countries meet their current near- and long-term emissions commitments, it increases the odds of keeping global mean temperature rise below 2°C from less than 7% to 68%.
In our Expanded Net-Zero Commitments Scenario, all countries that do not yet have mid-century net-zero goals adopt targets of net-zero emissions by 2070, and countries with carbon-only targets (i.e., China and Saudi Arabia) include all greenhouse gases in their existing targets. Getting all countries to net-zero emissions by 2070 pushes up the odds of keeping end-of-century global mean temperature rise below 2°C to 96% and puts the 1.5°C end of century goal within reach, albeit with a mid-century overshoot. We find a 67% chance of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C by 2100 (1.1-1.7°C likely range) with an average overshoot of 1.7°C in 2050 (1.5 to 1.9°C likely range).
Countries are now preparing to announce their new 2035 NDCs for emissions reductions by early 2025, a pivotal point for setting global climate ambition for the next decade and on the path to net-zero emissions. It’s important to consider what each country is currently on track for, as a starting point for assessing the level of ambition needed for these proposed NDCs. This year’s Rhodium Climate Outlook provides methodologically consistent economy-wide emissions projections for all G20 economies—assessing the outlook for G20 economies’ emissions in 2035 and comparing that to a straight-line trajectory from their 2030 NDC to their nationally-determined mid-century net-zero commitments. If all G20 economies set 2035 NDCs that follow a straight-line path from their 2030 NDCs to their existing mid-century net-zero commitments (and if Mexico were to adopt a 2060 net-zero target), the G20 as a whole would be on track to reduce emissions 21-28% below 2019 levels by 2035.
The ClimateDeck provides a detailed look at the emissions pathways for all G20 economies.
If G20 economies adopted 2035 NDCs that align with a straight-line to their net zero targets, there would be a convergence of per capita emissions for most economies in the 3-7 tons per capita range. China, Indonesia, South Korea, and the US would all converge at around 6.5-7 tons per capita, while Brazil, Japan, Mexico, and South Africa converge at 4.3-4.8 tons. Per capita emissions in the EU and UK drop from around 6 tons per capita to around 3, converging with India, which rises from 2.5 tons per capita today.
